APLD Stock: Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter Backtest — -22.6% vs +437.2% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter strategy on APLD over 5 years: -22.6% return vs +437.2% buy-and-hold, 5 trades, 0% win rate, 33.0% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: -22.6% (trailed buy-and-hold at +437.2%)
- Win rate: 0% over 5 trades
- Max drawdown: 33.0%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.37
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On APLD, the Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: -22.6% against +437.2% for simply holding — a gap of 459.8 percentage points. The strategy took 5 completed trades (0 profitable, 5 not), a 0% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 33.0% versus 76.7% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into APLD over the same window returned +151.9%. Best single trade: -5.0% (2026-07-07 to 2026-07-13); worst: -5.0% (2026-07-07 to 2026-07-13).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A multi-timeframe filter: only buy Applied Digital (APLD) on a daily RSI oversold signal (below 30) when the weekly trend is already bullish (50-week SMA above the 200-week SMA) — a short-term entry trigger gated by a longer-term trend confirmation, not just the daily signal alone. Sell when daily RSI rises back above 70.
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