XOM Stock: 20-Day Breakout Backtest — +26.9% vs +101.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day Breakout strategy on XOM over 5 years: +26.9% return vs +101.1% buy-and-hold, 17 trades, 35% win rate, 21.8% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +26.9% (trailed buy-and-hold at +101.1%)
- Win rate: 35% over 17 trades
- Max drawdown: 21.8%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.13
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On XOM, the 20-Day Breakout trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +26.9% against +101.1% for simply holding — a gap of 74.2 percentage points. The strategy took 17 completed trades (6 profitable, 11 not), a 35% win rate.
It did not buy that return with less pain: the strategy's max drawdown was 21.8%, against 20.1% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into XOM over the same window returned +56.8%. Best single trade: +30.5% (2025-12-29 to 2026-04-08); worst: -5.0% (2023-04-03 to 2023-05-02).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A trend-following breakout setup: buy ExxonMobil (XOM) when price closes above its highest level of the last 20 days, sell when it closes below its lowest level of the last 10 days.
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