TSLA Stock: 20-Day Breakout Backtest — +39.9% vs +40.8% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day Breakout strategy on TSLA over 5 years: +39.9% return vs +40.8% buy-and-hold, 22 trades, 23% win rate, 37.8% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +39.9% (trailed buy-and-hold at +40.8%)
- Win rate: 23% over 22 trades
- Max drawdown: 37.8%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.25
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On TSLA, the 20-Day Breakout trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +39.9% against +40.8% for simply holding — a gap of 0.9 percentage points. The strategy took 22 completed trades (5 profitable, 17 not), a 23% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 37.8% versus 65.0% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into TSLA over the same window returned +50.9%. Best single trade: +40.0% (2024-11-06 to 2024-12-31); worst: -5.0% (2023-03-31 to 2023-04-03).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A trend-following breakout setup: buy Tesla (TSLA) when price closes above its highest level of the last 20 days, sell when it closes below its lowest level of the last 10 days.
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