XOM Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +76.9% vs +101.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on XOM over 5 years: +76.9% return vs +101.1% buy-and-hold, 16 trades, 69% win rate, 11.4% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +76.9% (trailed buy-and-hold at +101.1%)
- Win rate: 69% over 16 trades
- Max drawdown: 11.4%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.68
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On XOM, the Bollinger Band Bounce trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +76.9% against +101.1% for simply holding — a gap of 24.2 percentage points. The strategy took 16 completed trades (11 profitable, 5 not), a 69% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 11.4% versus 20.1% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into XOM over the same window returned +56.8%. Best single trade: +19.0% (2022-09-23 to 2022-10-06); worst: -5.0% (2022-09-21 to 2022-09-23).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy ExxonMobil (XOM) when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
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