WMT Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +104.0% vs +199.7% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on WMT over 5 years: +104.0% return vs +199.7% buy-and-hold, 18 trades, 83% win rate, 14.3% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +104.0% (trailed buy-and-hold at +199.7%)
- Win rate: 83% over 18 trades
- Max drawdown: 14.3%
- Sharpe ratio: 1.01
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On WMT, the Bollinger Band Bounce trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +104.0% against +199.7% for simply holding — a gap of 95.7 percentage points. The strategy took 18 completed trades (15 profitable, 3 not), a 83% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 14.3% versus 23.3% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into WMT over the same window returned +84.7%. Best single trade: +13.5% (2025-04-08 to 2025-04-11); worst: -5.0% (2025-02-24 to 2025-03-10).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy Walmart (WMT) when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels