TSLA Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +247.2% vs +40.8% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on TSLA over 5 years: +247.2% return vs +40.8% buy-and-hold, 34 trades, 32% win rate, 36.1% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +247.2% (beat buy-and-hold at +40.8%)
- Win rate: 32% over 34 trades
- Max drawdown: 36.1%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.83
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On TSLA, the Bollinger Band Bounce beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +247.2% against +40.8% for simply holding — a gap of 206.4 percentage points. The strategy took 34 completed trades (11 profitable, 23 not), a 32% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 36.1% versus 65.0% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into TSLA over the same window returned +50.9%. Best single trade: +43.3% (2025-03-10 to 2025-05-12); worst: -5.0% (2022-10-03 to 2022-10-07).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy Tesla (TSLA) when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
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