SPY Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +87.7% vs +101.9% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on SPY over 5 years: +87.7% return vs +101.9% buy-and-hold, 18 trades, 78% win rate, 11.4% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +87.7% (trailed buy-and-hold at +101.9%)
- Win rate: 78% over 18 trades
- Max drawdown: 11.4%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.85
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On SPY, the Bollinger Band Bounce trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +87.7% against +101.9% for simply holding — a gap of 14.3 percentage points. The strategy took 18 completed trades (14 profitable, 4 not), a 78% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 11.4% versus 18.8% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into SPY over the same window returned +48.3%. Best single trade: +20.4% (2025-04-04 to 2025-06-24); worst: -5.0% (2022-08-30 to 2022-09-22).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy SPY when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
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