NVDA Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +321.4% vs +1249.3% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on NVDA over 5 years: +321.4% return vs +1249.3% buy-and-hold, 20 trades, 55% win rate, 27.5% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +321.4% (trailed buy-and-hold at +1249.3%)
- Win rate: 55% over 20 trades
- Max drawdown: 27.5%
- Sharpe ratio: 1.19
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On NVDA, the Bollinger Band Bounce trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Sep 2026: +321.4% against +1249.3% for simply holding — a gap of 927.9 percentage points. The strategy took 20 completed trades (11 profitable, 9 not), a 55% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 27.5% versus 41.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into NVDA over the same window returned +370.3%. Best single trade: +36.2% (2024-04-19 to 2024-05-23); worst: -5.0% (2022-08-26 to 2022-08-31).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Sep 2026 (generated 2026-10-01). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy Nvidia (NVDA) when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
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