NFLX Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +122.2% vs +189.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on NFLX over 5 years: +122.2% return vs +189.1% buy-and-hold, 25 trades, 40% win rate, 31.5% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +122.2% (trailed buy-and-hold at +189.1%)
- Win rate: 40% over 25 trades
- Max drawdown: 31.5%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.72
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On NFLX, the Bollinger Band Bounce trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +122.2% against +189.1% for simply holding — a gap of 66.9 percentage points. The strategy took 25 completed trades (10 profitable, 15 not), a 40% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 31.5% versus 53.7% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into NFLX over the same window returned +16.8%. Best single trade: +27.1% (2022-10-11 to 2022-10-19); worst: -5.0% (2023-02-21 to 2023-02-24).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy Netflix (NFLX) when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
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