IWM Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +40.4% vs +60.5% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on IWM over 5 years: +40.4% return vs +60.5% buy-and-hold, 21 trades, 57% win rate, 16.5% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +40.4% (trailed buy-and-hold at +60.5%)
- Win rate: 57% over 21 trades
- Max drawdown: 16.5%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.28
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On IWM, the Bollinger Band Bounce trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +40.4% against +60.5% for simply holding — a gap of 20.1 percentage points. The strategy took 21 completed trades (12 profitable, 9 not), a 57% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 16.5% versus 27.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into IWM over the same window returned +36.1%. Best single trade: +15.8% (2025-04-07 to 2025-05-12); worst: -5.0% (2022-09-01 to 2022-09-22).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy IWM when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
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