HD Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +44.7% vs +33.7% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on HD over 5 years: +44.7% return vs +33.7% buy-and-hold, 22 trades, 55% win rate, 14.1% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +44.7% (beat buy-and-hold at +33.7%)
- Win rate: 55% over 22 trades
- Max drawdown: 14.1%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.34
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On HD, the Bollinger Band Bounce beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +44.7% against +33.7% for simply holding — a gap of 11.0 percentage points. The strategy took 22 completed trades (12 profitable, 10 not), a 55% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 14.1% versus 31.8% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into HD over the same window returned +9.5%. Best single trade: +14.8% (2025-06-13 to 2025-08-13); worst: -5.0% (2023-08-21 to 2023-09-22).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy Home Depot (HD) when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
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