DIA Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +39.8% vs +77.5% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on DIA over 5 years: +39.8% return vs +77.5% buy-and-hold, 18 trades, 67% win rate, 12.2% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +39.8% (trailed buy-and-hold at +77.5%)
- Win rate: 67% over 18 trades
- Max drawdown: 12.2%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.35
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On DIA, the Bollinger Band Bounce trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +39.8% against +77.5% for simply holding — a gap of 37.6 percentage points. The strategy took 18 completed trades (12 profitable, 6 not), a 67% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 12.2% versus 15.9% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into DIA over the same window returned +36.4%. Best single trade: +10.8% (2025-04-04 to 2025-05-12); worst: -5.0% (2022-08-30 to 2022-09-22).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy DIA when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
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