APLD Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +1211.5% vs +437.2% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on APLD over 5 years: +1211.5% return vs +437.2% buy-and-hold, 35 trades, 29% win rate, 36.3% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +1211.5% (beat buy-and-hold at +437.2%)
- Win rate: 29% over 35 trades
- Max drawdown: 36.3%
- Sharpe ratio: 1.28
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On APLD, the Bollinger Band Bounce beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +1211.5% against +437.2% for simply holding — a gap of 774.3 percentage points. The strategy took 35 completed trades (10 profitable, 25 not), a 29% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 36.3% versus 76.7% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into APLD over the same window returned +151.9%. Best single trade: +98.5% (2025-04-15 to 2025-05-16); worst: -5.0% (2023-02-24 to 2023-03-07).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy Applied Digital (APLD) when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
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