AAPL Stock: Bollinger Band Bounce Backtest — +74.9% vs +128.6% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Bollinger Band Bounce strategy on AAPL over 5 years: +74.9% return vs +128.6% buy-and-hold, 22 trades, 55% win rate, 15.5% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +74.9% (trailed buy-and-hold at +128.6%)
- Win rate: 55% over 22 trades
- Max drawdown: 15.5%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.56
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On AAPL, the Bollinger Band Bounce trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +74.9% against +128.6% for simply holding — a gap of 53.7 percentage points. The strategy took 22 completed trades (12 profitable, 10 not), a 55% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 15.5% versus 33.4% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into AAPL over the same window returned +76.1%. Best single trade: +20.7% (2025-04-08 to 2025-07-01); worst: -5.0% (2022-08-30 to 2022-09-16).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A volatility mean-reversion setup: buy Apple (AAPL) when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, sell when it touches the upper band.
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